And the wild speculation begins. Hurricane season is only a week or so away here in Florida and the forecasters are ramping up the doom and gloom machine. As many as, “…13 to 17 named storms are expected to form during the six-month Atlantic hurricane season that starts on June 1, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA.)”
Let’s see, how accurate have these guys been in the past? Not very. But, let’s let the numbers prove it out.
In 2006 a more active than usual season was predicted. An average year has just fewer than 10 storms. The predicted number for 2006 was 17 – we got nine of which only two made landfall. So, the unusually active year really was just average.
In 2005 – the deadliest and most active hurricane season in over 150 years – the prediction was 13, we got 28. Slightly more than average (insert sarcasm). Not only that but, the world witnessed the erasure of an entire metropolitan area, billions of dollars worth of damage and hundreds of deaths – and that was from just one storm!
In 2004 the predictors – the enigmatic William Gray et al – figured on 15 storms and came very close to the mark. There were 16 storms that year. Not bad guys!
2003 three was set to be an active year with 12 storms predicted; there were actually 21 storms.
Does anyone else see a pattern here? Seems like Mother Nature does not like to play along with the guys with the white coats.
Here’s what I predict: every time a tropical wave appears off the coast of Africa plaid-coated weather men on local television stations all along the east and gulf coasts will get a gleam in their eyes as they talk about circulation and storm surge. Television stations will begin touting their Hurricane Preparation Guides available at Home Depot and other fine merchants. And the grocery stores will begin stocking up on water and batteries in preparation for the hordes of panicked lemmings doing what the uber serious television anchors tell them to do. Plywood will run short, generators will become a commodity, and ice will be stockpiled.
Now, I’m not saying don’t prepare. But, what I am saying is, don’t panic unless Jim Cantore is standing in your front yard with a camera crew.
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